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Shadow Credit Dominance and Monetary Transmission Failure in Nigeria: From Constraint to Exploitation

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– By Chinedu Okoye  Introduction and Summary: This paper dicuses the over extended tightening of monetary policy in Nigeria, giving the exorbitant rates in the non-bank financial sector. From the inception of demand management policies, monetary policy tools has undergone a series of regulatory changes, cyclical downturns, etc, however this has also been accompanied by intense periods of success on an annualized average. This has not been unique to Nigeria but a general occurrence amongst all central banks. Now, whilst the availability of credit has increased, as new Fintech Apps (non-bank) lenders exploited a gap, seen as the regulations which banks abide by, is somewhat restrictive, and some of these bank are as a result concentrating on individuals and corporates and with lesser risk profile. As a result the Fintech based credit companies (or shadow banks), absent regulations took the initative and considerable risk, to fill this gap and also capture the unbanked. Th...
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Is the NGX All Share Index Overvalued? : Zero Equilibrium® Macro-Based Analysis if the Nigerian All Share Index from a Minskian Perspective.

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– By Chinedu Okoye  Summary: • The NGX 30 growth closely tracking the broader NGX ASI on an intraday, monthly and annual basis  (+0.53% vs +0.54%), shows a balanced growth in the index as large caps aren’t lagging while small/mid caps aren’t outperforming. • The NGX 30 provides the bulk of influence as it accounts for roughly 70% of the ASI, with Banking (30%), MTN (25%), Industrials (20%), Oil & Gas (7.5%), Consumer Goods (7.5%), and other stocks (10%). • The rally is powered by both institutional money (pension funds, asset managers) and retail participation, with visible large block trades confirming broad-based and synchronized market activity. • A Minsky moment would not be surprising as the market is likely in the Speculative phase, where core drivers rise with the rest of the market, but some stocks remain closer to Hedge or Ponzi phases, making the NGX 30 vs ASI divergence and small/mid-cap optimism early warning signals. • The market shows healthy expa...
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Zero Equilibrium® Markets and Macro Weekly Report:

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- By Chinedu Okoye  Summary: • This week saw a divergence between developed‐market indexes, as European and UK stocks ended the week higher, as did Japan’s Nikkei. By contrast, US indexes slipped with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), NASDAQ and S&P 500 all down by over 1% on the week. • The Nigerian equity markets pushed higher on rising oil prices and bargain‐hunting, with the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) up seven-tenths of a percentage point to N198k. This is as energy stocks led gains, followed by industrials and Telco (MTNN). • Oil prices continued their rally. WTI crude climbed above $98.70 and Brent $103.14 by week’s end (roughly +50% over the past month), reflecting tight Middle East supply.  • Precious metals weakened as gold eased (to $5,051.10/oz on Mar.13) and silver fell further to $81.343, outpacing Gold on the weekly and monthly opposite directions. As industrial metal copper stayed down, extending monthly declines. • Global bond prices slid ...
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The Paradox of Sound Money: A Post-Keynesian critique of Austrian monetary theory

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“Sound money can become paradoxical when the stability it promises suppresses the credit that growth requires” - By Chinedu Okoye   1.0 Austrians Monetary Theory: Austrians abhor fiduciary credit creation, and fractional reserve banking, preferring a full reserve banking without the ability fo banks to extend credit beyond the reserves they hold. To them [Mises and Hayek] fiduciary credit expansion distorts the structure of production, leading to unsustainable nooms, and central banks, the reason for inflationary pressures overtime, as the credit expansion the enable, pushes interest rates below it's natural rate (the rate it would otherwise be if determined solely by the market and the monetary authorities do not intervene), causing malinvestment from cheap more accessible credit, and accompanied by inflation. 2.0 The Cantillon Redistribution : The same Austrian logic (F. Hayek) states that when new money is injected into the system, it doesn't spread evenly, and f...
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Nigeria’s Shrinking Production Possibility Frontier: Zero Equilibrium's Structural Perspective on the Nigerian Relative Economic Decline.

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- By Chinedu Okoye  1.0 Introduction: Production Possibility Frontier. In elementary economics, one of the most powerful conceptual tools used to illustrate a nation's productive capacity is the Production Possibility Curve or Frontier as I prefer (PPF). The PPF represents the maximum combination of goods and services an economy can produce when all resources are efficiently utilized. The concept of the Production Possibility Frontier, introduced by Gottfried Haberler (1936), provides a graphical representation of the trade-offs an economy faces in allocating scarce resources. Haberler introduced the PPF, because prior trade theory relied heavily on David Ricardo’s model of Comparative Advantage, which was expressed using the labour theory of value and based on the idea that countries should focus on goods the can produce more efficiently. With no thought to opportunity cost. Haberler improved the framework by replacing labour values with opportunity cost, which is the ...
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Zero Equilibrium® Monetary Policy Watch: Geopolitical Tensions Force Emerging and Frontier Banks Into A Policy Dilemma.

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- By Chinedu Okoye  Introductory Note: The Iran–Israel war (from late February 2026) has shattered market calm. Oil prices spiked (oil breached $110/barrel, driving a global risk-off mood. Investors rushed to cash and near cash assets with money-market funds (near cash) seeing record inflows and safe-haven flows to the US dollar (cash), while stock and bond markets tumble.   In Asia, MSCI’s emerging-market equity index plunged about 6% in the past week. This sent foreign capital fleeing EM assets, raising currency volatility and deepening the central-bank dilemma: cut rates to support growth, or hold/raise to defend currencies and tame inflation.  Emerging-market equities saw heavy losses in early March 2026. Equity funds focused on South Asia and Latin America were among the worst performers as the Iran–Israel conflict intensifies. The effect of the middle eastern conflict on markets and possible effects on Central Bank decisions is reviewed below, in light o...
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Zero Equilibrium Macro and Market Watch: The Week In Markets.

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By Chinedu Okoye  Synopsis: • This week is markets have been characterized by escalationofnthe Iranian - Israeli conflict, which has led to the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, the channel where most Middle Eastern Oil passes through to their intended destinations. • The conflict which has taken Crude Oil prices to the $90s levels with a tightened spread at $2.34/barrel (the difference between BRENT and WTI Crude benchmarks). • Brent initially outpaced WTI at the beginning of the trading week, but the katte caught up as market demand spilled over to the cheaper WTI. Precious metals were negative on the week, but held above support levels, while crude returned double-digit gains. • Equities fell across developed markets and economically advanced EM, with Europe taking the largest hit. • The US Dollar gained against it's major peers, as the DXY hit the 99 before settling at 98.5 levels. However, the other traditional safe haven assets - Treasuries- also saw declines in...
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